Wednesday, June 10, 2015

No way back: Donbass is economically separated from Kiev forever...

No way back: Donbass is economically separated from Kiev forever...
Posted 16:25; June 10, 2015

The war for Ukraine between Russia and the United States has a clear economic dimension. The aim of the US is a complete separation of the territory of Russia and the gap of economic ties, as well as the destruction of the remnants of the maximum economy of the state of Ukraine in order to take on Russia as much as possible make greater problems in its subsequent recovery.

In the Donbas this is achieved most easily by means of war. The purpose of Russian opposite - to create Ukraine such economic problems that it would be launched in the direction of Russia, but did not turn a large-scale disaster.

This explains the regular delays, concessions, delivery and discount Ukraine because Russia can not but understand that the severity of the recovery of the southern Russian territory lies on her shoulders.A parallel goal - to create a relatively acceptable economic situation in the DNI and the LC to make them attractive to other regions.Thus, if the purpose of the United States in Ukraine - the destruction, the Russian - creation.

The last weeks and months, the People's Republic of Donbass can safely take credit. Their socio-economic situation has improved considerably: the prices, though higher than in Ukraine, but still stopped growing after the jump in February and March, and even decreased slightly (price in UAH and rubles, both currency in circulation).

Pension payments began for the third month in a row, and each time the process is more organized and with less excitement. In addition, the authorities promised to increase pensions. Public sector wages are not yet fully paid regularly, but to go all confident, and themselves salaries have been increased by almost half. At least, that is the position in education and health.

Deficit products almost disappeared, and now there is almost everything you need, and excluding local products, 90% of Russia's production and only 10% of the Ukrainian. Yes, because of the difficulties with the import from Russia it affects the price of goods, so the vast majority of Russian products in the Donbass comes from the South of Russia: Rostov-on-Don, Volgograd, Kuban, Stavropol region, the Caucasus.

Develops and its banking network. In the DNI are 164 offices of the Central Bank of the republic. The plans of the Central Bank during the month to open another 50 branches in several cities.

Civil institutions of power in the DNI almost crystallized. And it means that in Ukraine there was an alternative and RUSSIAN statehood, set up what Russian President Vladimir Putin August 30, 2014, indicating that you need to talk "about the state of the Southeast."

Despite the many predictions about the triumphant return Akhmetov Donbass, who ostensibly clearing the way the current government DNI, neither of which his return is the question. Of course, we can say that all authority is subject to the DNI Akhmetov, but the fact that it is subject to Moscow. Incidentally, in May, one year as Akhmetov fled the Donbass, furious declaring war on TV DNR. He then angrily asked: who among men knows at least one representative of the DNI?

Well, a year has passed - and the oligarch can not worry: the people knows the leaders of the DNI. And Akhmetov himself at the end of May (just in time for the anniversary of his escape) closed its network of stores "Brusnichka" because of the blockade, hosted by Ukrainian regime.

And it closed forever, because with all the shops in a few days signs have been removed. "First Republic" supermarket, on the contrary, is experiencing a trade boom, using the high demand and being located on the former site of a network of shops "ATB", owned by the Dnepropetrovsk mafia.

And as Akhmetov, he in a sense, can sympathize: speak openly on the side of the junta he can not, because it is close to it all the way to the Donbass, and against - afraid to lose and that he had left. As a result, Akhmetov is forced to buy the loyalty of the inhabitants of the DNI humanitarian aid to pensioners, pregnant women, families with children and other needy social groups.

Thus, the "prophecy" that the DNI and the LC is about to give back to the wolves of the Ukraine is not only not true, but to not see any signs and prerequisites. DNR and LC with great difficulties, but steadily building its statehood in every sense: military, economic, political.

The DNR just started construction of a new road in Russia. During all the years of Kiev authorities from Donetsk to Russia has not been paved this road, and the road to Uspenka, through which runs the shortest route Donetsk - Rostov-on-Don, looks more like a country road.

In the present circumstances, when the main cargo traffic comes from Russia by road (rail traffic is not), the presence of a broad modern highway takes on strategic importance to the NPT.

Transport Minister Simon DNI Kuzmenko announced May 10 and schedule. "Over the summer we plan to rebuild the road Donetsk - Uspenka. This is the most basic and strategic road. There will be a new track is laid with the cargo flow ", - he said. If everything is and will be, very soon the message of Donbass with Russia should improve significantly.

Against this background, the social and economic situation in Ukraine, by contrast, is only getting worse. That there are literally at least utility tariffs, which the DNI and LC were frozen in June 2014 and raised in the Ukraine several times at the request of the IMF will continue to grow.

And the forecasts are disappointing: Ukraine's GDP in 2015 will decrease by 9% and inflation at year-end is expected to be 46%, he said on May 31 in Kiev, the head of IMF mission Nikolay Georgiev."The mission has revised growth forecast for 2015 downwards to minus 9%, and expects inflation to end the year at a rate of 46%," - said Georgiev.

A former minister of revenue and charges of Ukraine Alexander Klimenko said yesterday that the total debt of Ukraine, that is, the state and business, to foreign creditors is about 126 billion dollars."In terms of every Ukrainian, including elderly and children, should be 993 dollars to foreign creditors," - said the ex-minister. Leave the accuracy of calculations of officials, but in any case, the astronomical figures.

In fact, Ukraine is in default, which will never be announced. In late March, it was reported that Ukrainian food militants this year, fortunately, does not suffice about $ 29 million. According to Yuri Biryukov, advisor-Valtsmana Poroshenko, dry rations, which feeds Ukrainian warriors do not have enough vitamins, and because of these rations to lose their teeth.

It is noteworthy that on the same day, May 31, «Forbes» published an article about the fact that Ukraine will have a dramatic reduction in the working population, and it will further strengthen economic problems, with no assistance from the IMF is not correct.

Currently, Ukraine demonstrates the demographic dynamics for the Russian equivalent loss of about 500-600 thousand. People. per year, and this without migration. But over the past year Ukraine had left hundreds of thousands of citizens.

According to the Federal Migration Service, in the period from April 1, 2014 on the territory of Russia and entered as of April 1, 2015 have not had lost more than 953 thousand. "Citizens south-east of Ukraine." A Kiev "statistics" still continues to capture on paper the migration gain of the country: for example, international migration, in Kiev, "data", was almost 5 thousand. For the first quarter.

What is the true situation with fertility and mortality, even if, according to Ukrstatu, Ukraine not only continues to die out quickly, but the extinction has accelerated in 2015 nearly 25% ?!

In fact, Ukraine can only exist on Western credits, which, however, she was in no hurry to give. As a result, the United States has to maintain its own "sons of bitches": June 2, Kiev announced a loan of $ 1 billion from the United States.

However, as noted by the Ministry of Finance Kiev, the current conditions of the loan agreement, as well as the previous ones, "to strengthen Ukraine's desire to meet the conditions of the IMF program and to carry out other steps necessary to strengthen the rule of law, the social security system, to further promote the important structural reforms and the resumption of economic growth in Ukraine. " This means that Ukraine will continue to peel as sticky, and the people will continue to get poorer.

Under these conditions, a non-return is vital to Ukraine's debts.States have found a Solomonic solution for their proteges. As long as Ukraine does not give money, and give your - toad presses, let them at least not return the old ones.

Apparently, according to the calculations of the Yankees, it will allow the junta to stretch some more time. The go-ahead was given explicitly from Washington for the junta itself this would never have the audacity to dare. While the law on the moratorium on the payment of foreign debts is limited to July 1, 2016, and most likely a trial balloon by the United States.

"Terrorist" Donetsk

What will happen to the Ukrainian economy next, time will tell, but it is clear that the US is in a hurry, afraid not to have time to time, when no credit Kiev will not help. Well, Donbass, despite the announced blockade of Kiev and other objective difficulties, including those related to the fact that the interests of big business have not gone away, not only politically, but economically separated from Kiev.

Author: Evgeny Chernyshev

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