By the anniversary of the Reunification of the Crimea with Russia: "Crimea: The Way home"
"The biggest problem may be the massive entry of Galicia in the" United Russia "
"Based on the analysis of the Kremlin, one can assume that Moscow needs all Ukraine.
New Russia, in the logic of this scenario - A temporary project, to Ensure the Military victory in the Conflict, and not involving in the Process of Russia, to justify Under international Law the elimination of the Kiev Neo-Nazi State. Putin's Strategic Plan Appropriate to its logical conclusion the process of creating a regular army of New Russia and the elimination of ataman, and the gradual alignment of more or less workable management structure of the region updated the question about the future of the NPT and the LC.
It was at this time Became more active adherents of the Sect "Putinslil." We must hate with every fiber of the soul of Putin, That even Recognized by the alarmists Process of reforming the Army Militia Treated as A Drain of New Russia. Nothing But an irrational hatred of the Russian president, it is impossible to explain logically consistent position of the Russian patriots alarmists who think after Ukrainian Nazis that Putin is to blame for everything, simply because blame.
Would it be A desire to merge the New Russia, it Would have HAD Long ago. In April-May 2014, even in August, you CAN Safely Say: "Yes, Crimea Rescued, while the remaining Forces Will not suffice." And on the wave of patriotic enthusiasm of the return of the Crimea society would quietly swallowed refusal to support the New Russia. And no retired FSB colonel, whether Eugene of Savoy, Duke of Marlborough, Bonaparte and Prince of Italy, Count Suvorov-Rymniksky rolled into one, with twenty colleagues, failed to stop the army (even such as Ukrainian) without direct Russian aid.
It is impossible that one government agency to support "the just struggle of New Russia" and the other "merge" it would be at full nonviolent resistance to evil by the president. Legends of the eternal enmity of the Kremlin "towers" are good for fans of conspiracy theories, as well as to fooling the CIA, the political actions of the Kremlin is carefully thought out, otherwise Russia would simply irresistible to American power, more recently greatly exceeds the capabilities of Moscow. Those who are going to merge, the army is not created. This, however, does not mean that there is no problem in Novorossiysk hidden meanings that the fate of the political education so rosy.
First, the leadership of any country (except Ukraine) operates in accordance with a specific strategic plan (no matter how sneered amateurs on "Putin's cunning plan"). This is even more evident in relation to the Russian leadership. Only an inadequate man can sincerely believe that as long as Americans, sparing no effort, worked on the final liquidation of Russia as a geopolitical reality, Moscow and only occasionally sluggish to react too brazen antics. As a result, the United States, together with the EU and NATO, officially announcing its goal the destruction of Russia and Putin's removal from power, the whole year can not deal with Russia.
Consequently, the strategic plan provides for the restoration of a multipolar world, Russia was. And there was a long time ago. But tactical decisions under the plan adopted situational, that is logical and correct. It is impossible to cover every next move of the enemy and every position in the strategic plan. Developments always require prompt response.
This is the ABC of politics and military affairs.
Secondly, recalling the Russian authorities in the Ukrainian direction (including before the rebellion), we can set about Ukraine's place in the strategic plan, and on this basis - and to predict the fate of the New Russia. Russia needs all Ukraine Back in 2004 it was clear that Moscow is fighting for all of Ukraine. Otherwise Novorossia might already appear during the first (Yushchenko's) coup. In 2004, instead of Kharkov booth, arranged Dobkin in 2014, quite successfully worked Severodonetsk congress of deputies of all levels. Find some "Gorlan, ringleader" and unleash it using the Russian media was not a problem.
The rest is a matter of technique, especially since then the country has not walked armed gang of neo-Nazis, the authorities in Kiev could not be legitimized without the "third round" of elections and security arguments against the southeast of the capital, and Western Ukraine were not. The situation in 2004 is fundamentally different from that of 2014 only one: the political struggle has not been canceled, and move Yushchenko and his regime was possible by peaceful means through elections.
What Happened later. Consequently, there WAS no need for A Military Base in the east of resistance Kiev. Yanukovych and the company's desire for political revenge and forced to focus on pro-Russian electorate, only able to return them to power, was enough. During the confrontation with the EU on an association agreement Moscow fought for the whole of Ukraine. Otherwise there would be no sense to provide a rigid economic pressure on the regime of Yanukovych, showing him in August 2013, what will happen after the signing of an association agreement with the EU.
After the collapse of Ukraine and the inevitable dire economic consequences (Yanukovych Yatsenyuk, he would not let even the West that gives Yatsenyuk) were guaranteed. Especially considering that the city of the South-East, tightly linked with local industry, would be the first to feel dismal results and so hated the Association Agreement.
Finally, after the February revolution in 2014 Moscow continued and continues to fight for the whole of Ukraine. Crimea were forced to take, not because local Russian "rusee" those in Donetsk and Kharkov. And not because of Crimea has risen. Rose Kharkov, and Crimean leadership that distinguishes servility towards official Kyiv (except for the half-forgotten and controversial presidency Meshkov), was ready to merge Peninsula junta unconditionally.
But in the Crimea was a Russian fleet, and Bandera went there not to cut Russian activists, and to provoke a fleet on fire. Then the main task - to draw Russia into armed conflict in Ukraine - would be solved. That's why the Crimea and then had to hastily transferred to the status of the Russian territory, and now Kiev junta, try it break through Perekop, would become the aggressor, encroached on Russian soil.
The US and the EU CAN not accept the annexation of Crimea to Russia de jure de facto But it is - the Russian Land, and this must be Considered All. In General, All Actions of Russia DURING the Last Decade Developing the Ukrainian Crisis Demonstrate That Moscow intends to integrate Ukraine into a Eurasian project is not piecemeal, but as a whole. Before the revolution in 2014 it was about to Ukraine became one of the major components of the Customs Union, and then the EAEC. That is, Russia hoped to establish and strengthen in Kiev friendly political regime, which began to implement a policy of mutually beneficial economic cooperation.
Direct Political subordination of Kiev Provided WAS not, it is not Provided Political subordination of Minsk or Moscow, Astana. Just Economic and Military power, as well as the Geographical Position of Russia (Whose Territory is the link across Eurasia) make it uniquely locomotive Post -Soviet integration. Yes, and cultural unity of the project is provided by Russia. Kazakhs Armenians do not speak in Ukrainian and in Russian. Russian Rerusifikatsiya World After the coup, Talk About the Restoration of A Ukrainian State Would be too optimistic.
First, you need to install external control for denazification. Second, you need a foreign military and police control to disarm fighters and Nazi thugs. Third, the economic recovery would take too long and will require huge investments. Invest exorbitant money into someone else's economy, but still without any guarantees that a couple of years in Kiev again failed to establish any neobanderovsky mode, it would be unforgivable magnanimity. So, Ukraine Russia needs all entirely. Otherwise, it may be cleaned from Bandera Novorossia completely, even within the boundaries of the eight regions, would have already been used.
Ukraine CAN not Join the Eurasian integration projects as an independent State, Because this State is not, and to rebuild it Necessary to Spend too much time, Effort and resources. So, She Remains the only option - to integrate into the Eurasian space as Part of Russia. Of course, now in Ukraine developed Russophobia, 40-50% of the population consider Russia as an enemy.
But do not forget That it is Mostly Russian people duped Hostile propaganda. Ukrainian - A term with A Territorial binding. From this point of view, Ryazanets - is not Russian. He spoke in the Ryazan, Ryazan wears clothes. He has his own history of Ryazan and Ryazan in this story happened many times at odds with the great reign of Vladimir and Moscow.
In general, the Russian people, even partially derusifitsirovannyh necessary rerusifitsirovat. No other way out. Empire, throw territories inhabited by indigenous imperial state-forming ethnos, just because of this ethnic group was captured Nazi propaganda, undermining its own database. But if Lukashenka's Belarus, despite its Russian-ness and economic dependence on Russia, is still able to exist as an independent state, and therefore the process of its reintegration into the world of Russian, obviously, will be severely stretched in time (a specific integration mechanisms provides the maximum possible degree of self-sufficiency), Ukraine is its ability of independent national development exhausted.
On its own from the chaos in which it was plunged their rulers, she did not get out. Moreover, any extant piece of independent Ukraine is hostile to Russian world and will create problems in Russia, the EU and the Russian-European cooperation. Enemy at the threshold can not leave. In fact, Russia has no alternative to the integration of Ukrainian territory and the remaining population of the Russian state itself.
It is possible that some outlying western territories may fall and be attached to the territories of its European neighbors (to the past not too indignant), but it seems that at this stage of the Russian leadership considers the partition of Ukraine as undesirable. Statements by the Kremlin and Smolensk Square's commitment to the idea of a federal blocs Ukraine (within the old borders, but without the Crimea) are a tribute to the diplomatic conventions, rather than a real plan.
Who CAN Get to Live in One Country, the population of Donbass and Galicians WHO Started the Civil War Against the Donbass? So That the Country again embroiled in Became A Bloody Civil Conflict, it is Necessary to include Expeditionary Force, DISCONNECTING the warring PARTIES. In fact, to save Ukraine, it is necessary to occupy. I'm not sure that the Kremlin has decided exactly where must pass the western border of Russia after the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, with or without Galicia, but even with her special problems foreseen.
Firstly, the Galicians easy and fun to obey the law, so that they will still be the most active denatsifikatorami (they love to spend any lustration). Secondly, now Ukraine controls most nationalistic of the possible powers. May be more nationalistic, but it will not be centralized power, and Makhno rabble "republics". Therefore, at the moment of the Galician nationalism rests on a logical contradiction - "patriots" in power are worse than the "criminal regime".
By the time of the overthrow of the "patriots" average Galician agree that the Ukrainians themselves can not control, so let alone anyone from the right. And because the West was not able to take responsibility for Ukraine, can only Russian. Third, the Galicians comforted by the fact that the ride to work in Tyumen (for gas workers) and construction of Moscow region (for the bulk) will be much easier than it is now. In general, the biggest problem may be the massive entry of Galicia in the "United Russia".
But for integration into Russia across Ukraine some Novorossia need no more than to create A Single Federal BLOCS Ukraine, That is not Needed at All. Why not create Understand what Novorossia, Kharkiv and Donetsk if, Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk quietly integrated into the Russian regions? In addition, if you create A kind of Novorossiysk State, then soon there Will Arise own Political Elite That Wants to Get and Give Russia more less; then the idea of the ancient Born Nation of Novorossiysk - is it Necessary something to justify the Existence of the state of Novorossiysk.
In the end, Russia will get for their money new Ukraine on its borders, but under the name of New Russia. And start all over again ... I think that understanding of time, even for a short project Novorossia explained by the fact that with the exception of structures necessary for the effective conduct of military operations, the other public authorities as to create something here " does not work ". Everything remains within the DNI / LC, that is, in fact, at the regional level.
A widely publicized once Parliament Novorossia by Oleg Tsarev remained a decorative body, virtually nothing on influencing and meaningless. The same called and criticized by many appointments to senior positions in the republics of people are not very reputable, but manageable. Why create a state structure, if soon they will have to eliminate? Why recruit cadres Novorossia competent ambitious professionals, if the continued existence of New Russia is not provided? Need people WHO Leave meekly at the Appointed hour and begin to fight for the Preservation of Novorossiysk quasi inserting Senior Comrades spoke in the Wheel. What is the role of Russia Today's New?
Firstly, as has Been Said, it organizes center of resistance to the Junta on the Ukrainian Territory. Secondly, it Forms A Liberation Army Capable of hiking in the Kiev and beyond, as the Junta Will start to crumble, and it Will start. Thirdly, there has to someone to apply for entry into Russia on behalf of the Ukraine. Not on the same areas it take? .. So, the liberation of Ukraine from Nazi produce formally Ukrainian troops. Army New Russia - the same side of the Civil War, as well as the army of Kiev, therefore, we are not talking about the external invasion, and the internal struggle.
The winner in the civil war is legitimized by the very fact of victory, additional legitimation did not need. The new Ukrainian government has the right to any foreign policy choices. In this case, the decision to restore national unity of Ukraine and Russia will be forced to file as caused by the state of a humanitarian catastrophe, which plunged Ukraine Nazi regime, and the impossibility of their own to cope with its consequences.
By the way, by the Nazis and their accomplices (to those who are not able to escape outside Ukraine) Ukraine's entry into Russia will also be beneficial. The fact that Russia has a regular proceedings and law extends its protection to all, regardless of ideological preferences. Therefore, supporters of the Nazis, Shed no blood, but only to "fight" in social networks, can feel safe. But the establishment of the rule of winners in the civil war, who write their own laws, and until then will be guided by the "revolutionary expediency" and understandably after the barbaric attacks of Donetsk and Lugansk, after Odessa and Melitopol Katyn execution, after hundreds of anti-fascists tortured vengeance, much not like it.
So there is reason to believe that the New Russia - the project time calculated for the period of civil war and to ensure a military victory and international legal justification for the elimination of the Kiev neo-Nazi state, without a formal retraction of Russia in the process. I am sure that after the victory of the army Novorossia evidence of atrocities Kiev regime will be more than enough for the world community, including Kiev Nazi henchmen from the US and the EU recognized the new government legal and legitimate. And when the legal and legitimate authority decides that Russian New Russia must return home - in historical Russia, indignant be too late.