Saturday, February 21, 2015

The Double Spy Scenario #MH17 | Ukraine is under all Circumstances Guilty

The Double Spy Scenario #MH17 | Ukraine is under all Circumstances Guilty

- Separatists seem at first sight to have a strong motive to bring down the MH17, because it civil upper Donetsk would be banned. This Ukraine would lose its military superiority among hostages of civil aviation. After that, separatists can take down any telephone.

- Although this hundreds of innocent airline passengers would life cost but that fell away to the many thousands of innocent civilians who were also still to be expected with Ukrainian bombing.

- But it is not as simple as Ukrainian military fighters and Antonov flew quite low resulting in the higher civil flying little coverage went.

- If the separatists really were planning to get a civilian plane down, they could make the best use of a solitary BUK telar in autonomous mode could not distinguish between military and civilian aircraft. Then they were able to turn a bottle of vodka in hand to have made ​​a mistake and took down a civilian airliner.

- But separatists and / or Russians succeeded despite the coverage of civil aviation always better to get down low-flying military aircraft such as the Antonov-26 on 14 July. The kidnapping of civil aviation was the low-flying military aircraft therefore hardly effective.

- We therefore conclude that separatists had no major interest in making civil aviation impossible, and certainly not at the price of the shooting down of a civilian unit.

- On July 15, it was announced by the military in the public statement that the civil aviation since July 14 was only allowed above 9,700 meters, and military aviation was suspended. But actually went military flights then usual.

- The so-called closing of military airspace had to give airlines the psychological security that separatists had no more reason to shoot a plane out of the sky. Also, the Ukraine would belegally exonerated from knowing better criminally keeping open the top civil Donetsk.

- After the suspension of military aviation had civilian aircraft, therefore, to fear nothing on paper. But airlines did not know that the military aviation continued.

- In the Public Statement of the army was also not mentioned that Pantsirs (A2A) reaching up to 15 km altitude probably had the AN-26 on July 14, downed. Because that was aired only on a diplomatic meeting that was not generally known to the airlines. And therefore abode many airlines wrongly assuming that there are only simple MANPADS in the game that were certainly not reached above 9700 meters.

- The most obvious scenario meant Ukraine separatists and Russians have a huge diplomatic blow to hand out before they would have to close its airspace for civil aircraft actually. She would anyhow be borne by separatists and Russians a civilian aircraft (to) shoot.

- July 14 After all, it was a little easier for the separatists. Everything under the 9700 meters could now be fired as a military unit. Except of course when planes had turned their ADS-B transponder device as citizens were identified, but the Flight Radar still flew lower than 9700 meters.

- What conclusion then had to pull separatists and how critical is a difference of 300 meters?The MH17 flew 10 km altitude heavy within the visual error margin of 9700 meters from the spotters. But what about Flight Radar? MH17 flew literally on the border of death? Of course, no sensible person than her knocking down there.

- Separatists had no reason to begin on July 17 to the upper atmosphere, where it already without Flight Radar directly to Russian roulette should proceed. That would be political suicide and that included separatists as well as Kiev. And with Flight Radar MH17 was definitely identified as civilian unit.

- The 9700 measure was certainly not intended to protect the international jet set. There namely nothing changed except that separatists were now implicitly invited to shoot anything below 9700 meters. Separatists would only rely on visual information and also consult Flight Radar for ADS-B transponder identity and altitude? On Flight Radar can not see military planes because they do not have modern ADS-B transponder or else it off.

- For mobile SAMs as BUK telar and Pantsir changed there by the Public Statement of the army nothing. This measure had no strategic impact. Because sensible separatists would in any case not only visual information but also confidence Flight Radar with ADS-B transponder identity and altitude measurement always take as a control. And then things changed under and above the limit of 9700 meters nothing.

- Flight Radar therefore plays a decisive role in the solution of the sinking of the MH17.Separatists have them used or not? Below 7 miles they could with binoculars and without Flight Radar AN-26 is still figuring out. But above 9700 meters there is no radar Flight no distinction possible.

- Possibly they were controlled by Rostov radar but there was the MH17 child at home and there was no reason to let a civilian unit shoot.

- The question is whether separatists actually used a form of Flight Radar. That seems obvious, but there are thereby making two observations. They would limit themselves to a height of say 7 miles than it was in the line above Donetsk military aircraft ADS-B transponderhad not turned on. Then they had nothing to Flight Radar. Which were still visible on Rostov's primary surveillance radar.

- And lower military jets appear more impressive their ground speed and the less time for Flight Radar. That must be running permanently. And the stress and hectic one finds it hard to see the rest Flight Radar.

- That really does require the seclusion of a BUK TAR radar car with "a full-function identification FRIEND-OR FOE (IFF) and NON-COOPERATIVE SYSTEM TARGET RECOGNITION (NCTR) modes (motor resonances). And so on that they did not have.

- Well, there was possible help from Rostov's primary surveillance radar.

- So there's room for a scenario in which the separatists did not use Flight Radar, as follows:

- The army leadership felt that separatists from Flight Radar did not use because they were not interested in the upper atmosphere with civil aircraft over the 9.7 km. And separatists also used after the 9700 cut-off score of 14 July still no Flight Radar. That some LL-76, SU-27 and MIG-29 that befell high was no immediate danger and had indeed possibly be ADS-B transponder off.

- In case separatists would ever become interested in the upper atmosphere, they had the same ground speed of the aircraft much more time to inspect Flight Radar. So only in the upper atmosphere, they would make use of Flight Radar.

- Are they a plane just visually perceive in that case in the upper atmosphere, they might decide to do a military aircraft which they then brought down. But that would be very unwise, because a device at high altitude was no immediate danger. So that they would not do that.Complete madness certainly within three days of the 9700 caesura.

- On July 17, it was a cloudy day so spotters probably could perceive no or very badly the MH17 in the upper atmosphere. They could see the MH17 only Flight Radar arrive. And make fliers as the MH17 is long in advance as civilian aircraft known. Also, a height indication is given. Therefore, it is virtually impossible that the mocker of the BUK - with Flight Radar on - the MH17 erroneously as a military unit could have conceived. He had not therefore Flight Radar.

- And therefore possessed separatists in this scenario without Flight Radar very likely had no information of the MH17 at the time of the disaster. Because the spotter could MH17 through the clouds hardly perceive and Flight Radar did not because he was in the upper atmosphere simply was not interested.

- So with Flight Radar was ruled an error and without the visual MH17 would probably not even be noticed. That creates room for another source of information.

- In this scenario, we therefore consider the absence of Flight Radar as evidence that the separatists MH17 could not have shot identified. And had she Flight Radar or to timely than they had identified the MH17 as a citizen and this device not shot.

- But Ukraine did in this scenario, hence the mocker of the BUK familiar designation for its part that MH17 a military aircraft was below 9700 meters, would check with Flight Radar. And thus resulted in a double agent.

- A double agent of Ukraine in Dnipropetrovsk radar as a spy for the separatists worked, or at an Air Force base, the spotter tipped about an impending military aircraft, an Antonov (the MH17) under the 9700 meters.

- But this cloudy weather scoffer of BUK could not verify this information. Today he could not visually check that Antonov there actually arrived. But there was a solution because the shooter on the BUK indeed a plane on its autonomous radar of appearance, albeit without altimetry and without identification.

- The Boeing 777 that a high ground speed (905 km / h) was 10 km, arrived at the BUK-radar slowly approaching. So because the amount was unknown, it seemed to the approach of a slow Antonov (440 km / h) in just 6 km altitude. A slow Antonov therefore slowly approaching with radial velocity (towards the BUK).

- After a serious course correction to the right of the MH17 suddenly sent straight to the BUK: - [at (0: 45 / 1.22)]. The command for this purpose must be on the cockpit voice recorder.

- The radial velocity shot up when the shooter BUK finally struck the red panic button. It was after all an SU-25 that had on reflection on the BUK coined.

- But the real misunderstanding that must have been the shooter in the BUK thought there was approaching a military aircraft at lower altitude.

- So indeed, if the spotter not use the BUK made ​​of Flight Radar and Rostov radar did not ask for an explanation and therefore no longer on his informant familiar, yes he could have given the shooter of the BUK command to the MH17 to down shoot.

- As mentioned before, the shooter of the BUK telar a limited autonomous radar which he could determine height nor identity of aircraft. Just two things that played a major role in bringing down the MH17. He was flying aircraft totally dependent upon spotter information.

- In this scenario, a most promising Ukrainian double agent, the mocker of the BUK then misled. He knew that the Flight Radar spotter did not need. He had looked at the radar and should have known exactly who arrived a civilian aircraft here.

- Then the spotter has the shooter of the BUK inadvertently the wrong plane designated as low-flying Antonov why the gunman shouted after also despair that civilian aircraft there (under 9700 meters) did not fly anymore.. Would not it be a low-flying Antonov? For he himself could not determine altitudes his radar.

- When one of the separatists BUK the MH17 must have knocked down then that can only be done by a drunk gunman in the BUK or indicate a spy from Ukraine who has deceived the mocker of the separatists.

- But in another scenario is obvious that Ukraine itself with BUK (SAM) or an A2A (AAM) has executed the judgment. Would cover an SU-25 involved then fired first A2A from under 5 kilometers because of Rostov radar and then he shot his machine gun on the falling empty cockpit. But this is a little too contrived.

- In addition to the country at war are all grabbing lines concerned continued to fly for financial gain about Donetsk and all states which protected their citizens lack of laxity or political reasons complicit in inciting war crimes against humans (ern) of from impure motives that interests of air passengers not stated primary.

- The control of flight in the world should therefore be transferred to an independent body.Governments that have neglected their duty, should be deposed and persecuted ministers concerned.

- Ukraine is under all circumstances guilty of inciting war crimes by conditional intent with probability consciousness. After the shooting of the Antonov 6.5 km altitude airspace immediately had all civil aviation should be closed.

- In case of delivery of a solitary BUK telar or Pantsirs is Russia complicit in inciting war crimes.

Motives knockdown MH17

Counter-espionage with MH17

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