Friday, November 7, 2014

Operations In East Ukraine Indicate Possible Escalation | The Saker

Increased Combat Operations In East Ukraine Indicate Possible Escalation

Ukrainian forces engage in combat reconnaissance, a tactic used before a military offensive

The Saker UKRAINE 10 hours ago

The situation remains tense

The latest analysis of the situation on the ground in East Ukraine from one of the best informed military analysts watching the Ukraine conflict. He contributed this post to RI, and it also appeared on his blog.

I consider the blog of "Colonel Cassad" the best informed and most honest blog about the situation in the Ukraine, bar none.

Right now, he is reporting that while there is an increase in combat operations, this is more a case of "combat reconnaissance" (opening fire to try to evaluate the enemy disposition), than of a real full-scale attack.

That is the good news.

The bad news is that a energetic "combat reconnaissance" is exactly what the Ukrainians would be doing before a major offensive.

I will try to keep you posted. Right now, this is not a full scale attack. Not yet.

One more thing

If the real Ukrainian offensive materializes (maybe later tonight, maybe not) the Novorussians will most definitely retreat along certain axes.

This does not mean that they will be "defeated", only that they are retreating which is a defensive tactical maneuver. So, please, let's not have a repeat of the general panic attack of last Spring, okay? By itself retreating indicates nothing at all, it is neither good nor bad, it is neutral.

To evaluate/assess a retreat we must look into the "fine print" of the military situation and understand why and how this retreat has been ordered.

Questions such as "did the enemy force go beyond the 2nd tactical defensive echelon" are absolutely crucial for any evaluation.

I just want to make sure that when the hurray-patriots and Putin-bashers resume their hysteric you don't get fooled by their antics.

Source: Russian Insider .com

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