"Waiting for the winter third Maidan - the revolt of the unemployed and the frozen inhabitants"
Slavyansk fell. Militia leaves, but the war continues. What's next? The experts of "URA.Ru" there is the answer. INFOGRAPHICS losses in Ukraine
Experts agree that the main enemy of the Kyiv mode, not war or militias, and their own economy
What happened is what happened. People's militia of Donbass after three months of defense Slavyansk left became famous town in the night of 4 to 5 July. The commander of the garrison Igor Strelkov withdrew its soldiers from the environment, and went to the side of Donetsk, despite previously voiced statements on the protection of the city to "the last cartridge". Opponents said about the defeat of militias, thereby sowing doubts in the victory even among the militia. However not all so is simple.
...and read on!
"He could, of course, to arrange the heroic defense of Slavyansk, most of the militia were killed there, the others would have taken away the spirit of rebellion in the surrounding regions. But Shooters decided to strengthen Donetsk, and decisive defence will take place apparently, there, - explains "URA.Ru“ his vision of the situation Lemons. - Besides, in Donetsk no such centralized group, which managed to create Shooters in Slavyansk. Now, bringing back 2 thousand of soldiers and having, apparently, unquestioned authority, Shooters will be able to organize the defense of the best. Without Strelkova Donetsk would be much weaker.
On the photo Eduard Limonov (second from left) together with the Chetniks in the war in Yugoslavia
Eduard Limonov, thinking of his combat experience in Yugoslavia and in Transnistria, said that on the place of the commanders I tried to "move the fighting in neighboring regions".
"Bother you would Kolomoisky in Dnepropetrovsk, send a team in Zaporozhye to Kiev, to bring the lookout. Or just that, capturing some of town with sonorous name, even for a day or at the clock, would raise the morale of the rebels. I would have done. At full speed, as much noise, the column in the city, postrelyat traitors, and back - reflects the interlocutor and notices that immobility and exclusively defensive tactics ruined not one revolt, and in the history of the world there are many such examples. - The defence of cities, I think still is a passive form of rebellion.
Defence Donetsk do experienced "Strelkova" from Slavyansk. But experts differ in opinion, should I move to a defensive
Russian political scientist and writer Alexei Kungurov, author of several studies on the conduct of modern war, is also sure that a departure from Slavyansk became inevitable.
"To storm his Ukrainian military did not dare. They concentrated enormous power of artillery and began a massive shelling of the area. Because the militia almost no heavy weapons, to answer they could not. So what is the point to be kept under continuous fire, explains "URA.Ru“ expert. - The second reason retreat environment Slavyansk that made it impossible to supply the garrison, the evacuation of the wounded. Finally, in terms of absolute fire superiority of the enemy, militias can effectively use only guerrilla tactics.
Experts agree in opinion that the Ukrainian army pulled in Donbass all of their more or less capable forces
Kungurov in their mind draws a parallel situation Slavyansk with the defeat of the Federal forces in the village of Komsomolskoye of a large gang of Chechen gunmen in March 2000.
"There was a similar situation when a large force of Chechens were blocked in the village Komsomolsky. Russian troops were first made the same mistakes that Ukrainian military with Slavonic.
Kungurov is sure that the third Maidan in Ukraine is not far off
According to him, the Ukrainian military men in similar situations freely released "Strelkova" from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. And now they have a kind of "taking the terrible", even as much as two - Donetsk and Lugansk.
"This is for the Ukrainian army is an impossible task, to equalize them with the earth they simply will not have enough ammunition, successfully to storm they may only those settlements, where there are no militias, for example, Mariupol. No cases of successful assault on the city to battle the army has not demonstrated, says the interlocutor and makes a conclusion about the further development of the situation. - Actually, the separatists can just do nothing and wait. To defeat the army of Ukraine, they, too, will not be able, however, Ukraine will lose this war is not for military and economic reasons, the impending economic collapse will kill.
Fact: despite the loss of Slavyansk, the militia has not suffered a fatal losses, and therefore the success of the Ukrainian army tactical rather
Member of the state Duma Committee on defense and former representative of the USSR and member of the liberation movements in South Africa and Namibia (1981-1996 years) and an active defender of the White house in October 1993 Vyacheslav Tetekin also confident that the main enemy "Kyiv junta" today is not a militia, and the economy. Our expert at the beginning of the year in interview "URA.Ru" already predicted such a development.
"Time is on the side of our allies. Economic situation in Ukraine is worsening daily. The country is bankrupt, with it all goes faster increase of prices and tariffs for energy. Even if the junta will, theoretically, to conquer Donbass, then you may soon zapoluchit other areas of Ukraine. So nothing good Kyiv clique is not expected. Money to them, nobody will. The West though promised, but he aimed not at giving funds and their exhaustion. The situation will not be settled in the nearest future", - shares his thoughts with "URA.Ru" state Duma Deputy Tetekin.
Militia waited until the last Russian troops, but they did not come
According to him, Kyiv cannot understand that this rebellion is not outside, but that is real will of the people. He is sure that the militias are still very efficient.
"They will not fail, they don't want to give up, " says the source. Care militias is a PR victory of Kiev. They were not defeated and made perfectly right maneuver: could defend the city, but this would lead to victims. Militarily Slavyansk attracted significant grouping "bondarovska" forces, and they certainly now regroup, but the troops home guard is mobilized. Ukrainians, in fact, in the Donbass tightened all combat-ready troops and equipment.
In conclusion, the expert, who saw with their own eyes is not a single revolution and rebellion, makes the assumption that the tactics of the Ukrainian army will not change and will be punitive tone.
Entire villages demolished from the face of the earth. This is a war with elements of ethnic cleansing, said the Deputy of the state Duma of Tetekin
"Will apply the tactic of bombing cities with use of aviation and artillery, as we have seen in Yugoslavia. And shocks will again be applied solely on the civilian infrastructure, hoping that the self-defense forces will withdraw from combat operations to rescue the civilians. But this will not happen", says Vyacheslav Tetekin.
In conclusion, as a bonus for their readers Agency "URA.Ru" prepared in the form of infographics statistics combat losses of the Ukrainian units and militia. It should be stipulated that all information is based not only on official data but in the message of the defenders of Donbass. The calculation is complicated by the fact that in the official Bulletin of Ukraine are not the soldiers of the various armed units of the National guard, "the Right sector", as well as private battalions collected from volunteers.