MH17 Downing: Background Context & Cause Hypothesis
Off the keyboard of A. G. Gelbert
Published on the Doomstead Diner on July 25, 2013
Discuss this article at the Geopolitics Table inside the Diner
|This article was Originally Published inside the Diner Forum as a Post from Diner Agelbert.Agelbert is a former Air Traffic Controller and Vietnam War Intelligence Operations Specialist & Aerial Reconnaisance Photo Analyst.Included in his post is a Flight Simulator analysis as well as speculation on the Context & Causes surrounding the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Aircraft Downing.RE|
Thanks for your input and intelligent comments. I have looked over my screed and updated it with a few added observations. I even made a few flight simulator screen shots.
I’m posting it at Surly’s channel because I think I can get more views that way. As long as I’m sticking my neck out, I might as well go for the gusto, so to speak.
K, the ONLY WAY these people get away with this shit is because the world mostly believes the bullshit narrative that most of us here believed most of our lives. IF they were convinced that they could NOT get people to believe it, they WOULD NOT DO IT. THAT is the goal of old farts like me that flat refuse to take up arms in a violent revolution.
Ashvin, I have conflicting views on what happens next but I’ll think on it some more and offer you my 2 cents in a couple of days or sooner.
UPDATED MH17 Downing background Context and Cause Hypothesis
(several typos fixed too! )
Okay, let’s take it from the top.Question AG,QuoteI do think most armies would have radar systems that were sophisticated enough to tell the difference furthermore I think it is quite likely the intelligence of most nations could track the movements of the head of state particularly if they were in a state of semi-war with the said nation. I feel whatever happened it is likely this plane was shot down intentionally and it is just a question of figuring out what the motive behind the attack was.
As a former air traffic controller I can tell you EXACTLY how the big ones paint on the screen of RAW radar versus the small ones. Now, of course, most airliners have mode S transponders. That means they CAN’T TURN OFF THE ALTITUDE READOUT along with the ground speed and aircraft ID like they used to be able to do before Mode S. Of course Putin’s plane is going to stand out like a sore thumb versus a civilian airliner for reasons I won’t go into.
My theory is that Samantha Power and her war loving neocon friends are delivering a message (on behalf of the “DEFEND THE DOLLAR AT ALL COSTS” fossil fuel/bank oligarchy) to ANYONE planning to join the BRIC plan to shit can the almighty dollar as the reserve currency.
As JD pointed out in so many words, , I have a tremendous capacity for the obvious.
How could the MH-17 crew have known there was an aircraft approaching from underneath unless ATC told them it was there? I know that large aircraft have a radar in their nose to see out into the dark and avoid objects in front of them. I know this because I got to ride in the jump seat of an MD-80 that belonged to the US GOV and that little radar screen was right in the middle of their instrument panel. Also, what is the flight data recorder going to tell the investigators other than everything went to shit in a hurry?
My understanding of what you have said on this topic is that Kiev ATC knew which aircraft was which and that the question now is who authorized the attack and what was used? R-60 (I think that is the AA-12) missile from an SU-25 or the ground based SA-11? The fact that the MH-17 was rerouted and told to descend to 31,000 feet suggests that there intention was to line them up for a kill by the SU-25.
Now, if, we were all so lucky that identifiable missile parts were recovered at the crash site, then one would have their answer. As to who ordered it, the government in Kiev is on the hook regardless as the “separatists” don’t have any aircraft and don’t have a radar unit to support the SA-11 missile. Since Moscow is off the hook, there are fewer people to blame…
1) Yeah a Malaysian Airliner with a bunch of people in it was shot down. What do inquiring minds with a lick of sense do first?
2) DUH, there is war going on in Ukraine, right? RIGHT! And the US fascist proxies that STARTED that war have ZERO communication (i.e. command and control instructions) with DA BOYZ in our “intelligence” neocon network, right? WRONG! Rest assured that 24/7, both Russian and US ASSETS are TASKED with FULL chain of command 24/7 consultation and weapons inventory condition (position at x, y, z locations, etc. and READY OR NOT for release as well as capabilities). Fog of war, my ass! This is BASIC SHIT in a proxy war with the PRESENT SURVEILLANCE capabilities of both (except ours are better than Russia’s) countries.
I had to make flip/strip chart maps a pilot strapped to his knee for fighter and bomber pilots flying into a war zone (Viet Nam) to deliver ordinance. I had to mark all the missile sites, triple A (Anti Aircraft Artillery), troop concentrations as well as radar signatures (the shape they form on SLIR, FLIR and or plain radar) of populated/industrial targets for ease of id and destruction.
I DID THIS from satellite and drone RECON (Yeah ,we HAD those in Viet Nam – they were carried on B-52s, dropped and flown around by RC, flown out and then recovered with lots of good photos ). I had to go over them on “Light” tables with stereo goggles running two rolls of negatives. I could SEE the ground in 3D and I had a neato little device that looks like a jewelers eye piece with measurement line references inscribed on them. I could measure anything down there within one foot (wing spans, fuel tanks, missiles, artillery, buildings, etc.).
I could, since I knew the Lat Long and exact time the photos were taken, measure a building shadow and know the height of said building, bridge or whatever. WE KNEW from day to day WTF was going on down there over 50 years ago!
We KNOW EXACTLY what is going on in places like the Ukraine with FAR MORE PRECISION NOW, PERIOD. And our GOONS have a LOVE affair with the fascists there going. They get MONEY from us to DESTABILIZE the country to keep Russia on the defensive. That’s the overall SCORE. Anybody claiming otherwise is FULL OF SHIT. Russia is no saint but they aren’t deliberately fomenting a revolution in MEXICO to install a government HOSTILE to the USA. And fuck anybody that claims the analogy doesn’t hold. It does.
3) When a deliberate confrontation such as the Ukraine is executed, mistakes are made, of course. But the overall plan is run through thousands of computer simulations with variables inputted along the way. The results that give the right plausible deniability and further our predatory “destroy Russia because they don’t want to kiss our ass” policy are “gamed”. ALL THIS HAPPENS BEFORE the top dogs HERE even START to generate a “colored” revolution in the Ukraine. Get it? YEARS ago this was gamed. The airliner was PART of that “simulation”. It’s an excellent flash point to get people to LOOK in the “right” direction for the goal here. The computer said all the destabilizing stuff would work. Now people blogging here can hem an haw about what the agenda is (Fuck BRIC or not, Fuck Putin or not, CNN credibility or not, fog of war or not, SAVE fossil fueldom or not by wasting people form a nation leading in renewable energy or not, Pay Back or not for the FOUNDER of Malaysian Airlines having participated on the war crimes tribunal that found the USA and Israeli TOP LEADERS guilty or a combination of the above) but the downing of the airliner WAS NOT A MISTAKE.
4) WHY? Because of the CONTEXT. This destabilization was planned, as was the Syrian destabilization. The Syrian destabilization was stymied. WHY? They asked the computer. BECAUSE, the elements that WERE present in operations like 9/11 were ABSENT in Syria (destroyed airliner – works every time – claims the computer…). Plausible deniability can be engendered by emulating the Korean Airlines operation (except our goons have to shoot it down this time rather than suckering Russia into downing it – they won’t fall for it because their radar is far too accurate to mistake an airliner for a bomber or combat aircraft, PERIOD).
5) SO, they watched as the Ukrainian operation started to peter out. They asked for a GO on operation down a big bird to keep the operation from being stymied like Syria. They provided a list of airlines that flew the route and the top ones on the SHIT list (Malaysian for BRIC support and War Crimes Tribunal – A TWO-FER bit of payback!).
6) The top dogs made a list ditch effort to stop the new currency effort with a few veiled threats made privately to Putin. Putin gave them the finger. The operation was approved. The rest is history.
7) Putin knows the score. He does not want WWIII. WE are the crazy uncle here, not Russia. WE WANT WWIII, no matter the COST! Don’t believe me? Reagan said, after watching the movie “The Day After” that the military assured him we could win the war with only 150 million American casualties. He wrote in his diary that “Those people are CRAZY”. GUESS WHO “those people ” WERE/ARE? Yep, their representatives are STILL THERE.
Now I don’t care if you think our country is rational and reasonable. You are just plain wrong. So, how could these “crazies” be so calculating, analytical and careful to do this “flawless” demonizing of Russia for allegedly downing a Malaysia Airliner? Doesn’t a crazy psycho make mistakes in the “fog” of war? Actually, they don’t. WHY? because they PLAN this shit.
9) It will get worse after a brief pause to see how many more cowards they have gotten to tow the fossil fuel/bank oligarchy running the USA and SOME of Europe. The target is RUSSIA BECAUSE they are HURTING the DOLLAR. That is not going to change any time soon. That is the correct context. Several years into the future, thousands of scenarios are IN THE CAN, including nuclear winter. Our goons WILL NOT accept the defeat that comes with a multi-polar, renewable energy, more democratic world with no mad dog USA shitting wherever and whenever we like. That ends my rant on context. Now for the Down a Big Bird Operation hypothesis (I hope this isn’t a “Three Days of the Condor” thing because this may be my last post if I got it exactly right…).
10) CAS is Collision Avoidance Radar. All airliners have it. Also all air traffic control systems have a program called Conflict Alert. It blinks the data blocks of two targets that will have less than minimum separation standards with AMPLE TIME (a few minutes or so) for the air traffic controller to warn at least one of the aircraft. On board the aircraft CAS goes off and collision avoidance instructions are shouted at the crew. BUT, an airliner cannot escape a missile. The aircraft has just nose radar BUT it has a data link to atc radar and CAN receive conflict alert data to activate CAS (aircraft overtaking or in conflict due to projected crossing trajectories by heading or altitude).
11) Missile targeting: There are several ways to do this. When a missile is released, it mostly does its own thing BECAUSE it flies so fast that the delay in reaction from an RC signal could cause a flight path error resulting in a miss.
12) The heat seeking capability (a no brainer for a HUGE IR signal like Airliner engines) is NOT exclusive in flight path targeting. An on board computer also has trajectory computation of the target. The target is LOCKED or it isn’t. If it’s NOT LOCKED, the missile does not explode. Yes, they have proximity destruction mechanisms that explode the missile before it hits. The reason for that is that missiles are delicate devices and they might NOT explode if the hit the target before they explode.
The downing of the airliner was NO MISTAKE.
The air traffic controllers SAW IT HAPPEN with conflict alert going off a minute or so before it happened. The new vector given to the flight could have been a “vector for traffic: 12:00 o’clock altitude unknown” (a LIE). ATC is COMPLICIT here JUST AS IT WAS on 9/11. The pilot would turn to the new heading – he has no choice unless he claims the new heading will send him into bad weather and asks for another heading.
UPDATE: I checked the flight path on MH17 and heT MUST have been vectored for some other reason tha “traffic” because it’s a LARGE deviation and a constant one. If they told him it was for weather and he didn’t see it on his radar, they would have difficulties getting him to obey. The pilot knew damned good and well where the war is going on and would question it. SO, the best way to get him to “deviate” is to calim CAT (clear air turbulence reports) on is planned rout. You can’t see that on radar and it CAN tear an airplaner apart so the pilot WOULD comply. Those atc tapes make the atc person look like he was just doing his job, rather than setting up the bird for a plausible deniability kill operation.
The Crew had a warning, (NOT when the fighter was beneath them as long as the trajectory of the fighter was not angled at the big bird – but the instant the fighter locked on to the big bird, the CAS went off) and MIGHT have said something BUT they had only seconds to react because from lock on to missile launch to impact at a few kilometers is a few seconds.
All this is OBVIOUS SHIT that the press WIL NOT GO INTO and talks about ridiculous idiodic stuff like the paint job of Putin’s plane versus Malaysia Airlines. GOOD GRIEF! Eyesight doesn’t have SHIT to do with downing an airliner at 33,000 feet!
13) The Flight Data Recording on the aircraft is NOT the important one. It will have a CAS or a conflict alert warning but may not have the id or trajectory of the object in conflict. The ATC facility tape of the PVD (plan view display with digitized data blocks of all the aircraft) which is saved for two weeks NORMALLY is where the true evidence is.
Consequently, the Ukranianis have a nice adulterated copy. BUT, the goons that ran this operation could not keep several other nations (like Russia, China and Malaysiai) that routinely monitor the ATC digitized feed from having the whole enchilada. Why doesn’t Putin put it all out there? LOL! That’s not how this “game” is played. Most people here KNOW that. Our news media KNOWS that. That’s why they ask that dumb fucking, innocent sounding question! Patience is, as you can see, not my strong forte. There is a lot of very clever duplicity being propagated on the downing of this Big Bird. ANYBODY that claims there isn’t is INSTANTLY suspect of pushing propaganda, in my view.
You have just heard an EXPERT opinion by a former Intelligence Operations Specialist and Air Traffic Controller. You are free to believe it or not. Still, most people won’t believe it unless it’s written in the New York Times or they watch it on CNN. Only puny secrets need protection; big secrets are protected by public incredulity. I know how this works. God help us.